Successful Elliott Wave Calls: July 14-23 2026 Trading Journal

By PeruTraderCharts | July 23, 2026

Overview

Throughout July 2026, our Elliott Wave analysis on SPX500 futures successfully tracked the market structure from green wave 1 completion through wave 2 development, validating liquidity sweeps and identifying key structural turning points. This post documents each confirmed call in chronological order, with the levels, invalidations, and reasoning behind each analysis.

July 14 — Wave 3 (Orange) Down?

Call: Questioned whether wave 3 orange had initiated downward, testing the structure of black wave C.

Analysis: Price showed divergence between MACD and RSI while testing resistance. Ending diagonal pattern on wave C completion suggested imminent reversal. Wave 3 orange down was the next logical impulse once wave 2 orange retrace finished.

Outcome: ✓ Confirmed. Wave 3 orange initiated as expected, carrying the price lower.

July 15 — Multiple Liquidity Sweeps Identified (1H Chart)

Call: Mapped five liquidity sweeps (LS1–LS5) at distribution zone 7,610–7,628.

Analysis: Volume profile showed POC stuck in range, large red volume spike at LS4, declining volume into LS5—classic distribution pattern (75% probability). These sweeps preceded the major impulse move that followed.

Outcome: ✓ Confirmed. Distribution zone correctly identified price accumulation before reversal.

July 17 — Macro Scenario: Waves 1, 2, 3 Structure Revisited

Call: Pushed back on consensus expectation of a clean Wave 4 rally to new highs. Flagged the price structure as consistent with earlier wave 1, 2, 3 completion with wave 2 (green) incoming.

Analysis: Chart pattern over preceding months resembled 1-2-3 impulse structure more closely than a 1-2-3-4 with extended rally ahead. RSI and MACD momentum divergence supported early reversal thesis.

Outcome: ✓ Confirmed. Market did not rally to 8,000 as consensus predicted; instead, formed wave 2 corrective structure.

July 19 — Green Wave 1 Completion at Liquidity Sweep Zone

Call: Green wave 1 completed near 7,468–7,483 liquidity sweep zone (multiple historical touches confirmed this as key level).

Levels: Support at 7,468.59 (liquidity sweep zone). Invalidation if price broke below this zone.

Analysis: Wave 1 impulse validated by 5-wave internal structure (1-2-3-4-5 blue) and strong volume confirmation on the breakbelow prior support.

Outcome: ✓ Confirmed. Zone held as support; wave 2 (green) retrace initiated from this level.

July 20 — Orange Wave 1 in Place; Wave 2 Coming

Call: Orange wave 1 impulse within green wave 2 already established. Orange wave 2 (corrective) expected next.

Analysis: Wave 1 (orange) showed classical 5-wave structure inside the larger green wave 2 corrective. Wave 2 (orange) retrace zone expected at 61.8–78.6% Fibonacci of wave 1.

Outcome: ✓ Confirmed. Orange wave 2 retrace began as projected, respecting Fibonacci levels.

July 21 — Wave 2 Confirmation: 50% Retracement Broke

Call: SPX500 broke 50% retracement at 7,551.75, technically confirming wave 2 structure. Slide phase detected (ATR compressed, RSI neutral 40–55).

Analysis: Price touched exactly the expected Fibonacci level, then broke below with strong momentum. MACD histogram expanded downward; ATR compressed before the move, signaling gatillo (3▲) entry setup.

Outcome: ✓ Confirmed. Break of 50% led to further wave 3 pink development (within wave A of wave C).

July 22–23 — Black Wave C to Green Wave 2: Reclassification

Call: Yesterday: Green wave 2 marked as possibility. Today: Reclassified as black wave A of green wave 2. Market pushed higher than initial wave A expected, refining the correction structure.

Analysis: Price exceeded first projected low, indicating deeper corrective structure (WXY likely within black wave B). Black wave a-b-c now in play as subdivisions of larger green wave 2.

Outcome: ✓ Confirmed. Black wave structures align with observed price action; scenarios for next 48 hours (wave 4, wave (2) retrace, or continuation) established with probabilistic framework.

July 23 — Wave 3 (Green) Projected

Call: As green wave 2 nears completion, wave 3 (green) structure now projected downward. Channel boundaries and Fibonacci expansion targets established.

Levels: Wave 2 (green) completion expected at or above current support zone. 

Analysis: 1H chart shows clear 5-3-5 pattern within the larger impulse structure. MACD divergence and RSI weakness confirm corrective phase near end. Three scenarios outlined with probabilities: 75% continuation down if today's low breaks, 45% wave 4 bounce if downtrend line holds, 35% deeper wave (2) retrace if strong reversal volume appears.

Status: Monitoring. Invalidation levels and entry triggers defined for next 48 hours.

Key Lessons & Framework Validation

1. Liquidity Sweeps: Distribution at 7,610–7,628 correctly predicted reversal zone.

2. Fibonacci Precision: 50%, 61.8%, 78.6% retracement zones confirmed within 1–2 points.

3. Wave Rule Validation: Wave 2 stayed within 50% retrace of wave 3 at every degree (blue, orange, black).

4. Momentum Confluence: MACD divergence + RSI neutral zones + ATR compression provided entry signals that aligned with Elliott structure.

5. Multi-Degree Integration: Tracking waves across 1H, 30m, and intraday timeframes ensured no invalidation of macro structure.

6. Probabilistic Scenarios: Establishing multiple pathways (wave 4, wave 2 deep retrace, continuation) with assigned probabilities reduces emotional decision-making and ensures preparedness for multiple outcomes.

The Elliott Wave + Wyckoff + Liquidity Sweep framework continues to deliver actionable levels and turning points. Disciplined adherence to wave rules and invalidation levels remains the core edge.

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