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Saturday, December 29, 2012

$SPX discussion at MTA.org


4.
RE:$SPX Elliott waves count 2007 2012
From:Scott Willis
To:Elliott Wave Analysis
Posted:December 29, 2012 3:44 PM
Subject:RE:$SPX Elliott waves count 2007 2012
Message:

If the run-up since 2009 is wave 1, that means that 2000-2009 was an ABC. Call me naive, but I don't think a correction of this magnitude would begin 7 years before the major top in 2007.  The correction starting in 2007 will be my assumption  going forward unless someone can help me prove myself wrong.

Also, supporting this contention is that in a secular bear market (starting in 2007), the wave 2 correction from the lows in 2009 to present has a psychological feel.  That is one where the masses believe things are back on track, we made it through the bad stuff, and new highs are near. When in actuality, the economy is severely worse than it was at the start of wave 1!  Since I believe that's where we are  psychologically, the count from the 2009 low is a 5-3-5 zig-zag, which ended in October, 2012.  Going above 1442 will invalidate this read.  I would like to be convinced otherwise, because I'd like to be bullish again. It's much more fun!
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Scott Willis
Investment Analyst/Portfolio Manager
Trading Talents
Fort Worth, Texas
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5.
RE:$SPX Elliott waves count 2007 2012
From:Manuel Aparicio
To:Elliott Wave Analysis
Posted:December 29, 2012 4:54 PM
Subject:RE:$SPX Elliott waves count 2007 2012
Attachment(s):
Message:
Hi Scott,

I am once again exhibiting my count since 1928 to the present date, in which you can observe that in the years 1975 to 2000 a huge primary(cycle) wave 3 was developed. Price went from 72 to 1,472 in an "overwhelming" bullishness and this episode is the one responsible for the process we are now, before a cycle(supercycle) wave 3 bullish process can start its developing.
Once again, I have requested the board of Directors of the MTA for a meeting to discuss my 4 new rules to be used in the Elliott waves Market Analysis Theory; the ones I will be able to share once they have been approved.


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maparicio
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$SPX & $AAPL discussion at MTA.org.

We are using again this blog because we need it to share this interesting conversation on the MTA.org community:

RE:$SPX Elliott waves count 2007 2012
From:Manuel Aparicio
To:Elliott Wave Analysis
Posted:December 29, 2012 3:14 PM
Subject:RE:$SPX Elliott waves count 2007 2012
Attachment(s):
Message:


I have received this Message From: Panagiotis (Panos) Dantis:

Dear Manuel , I think we are not going to see new lows in S&P500 index. In 2008 we saw a panic . Such things occur only once in 100 years period. I do agree that we are in new cyclical bear market, but from Elliot point of view, 2009 up to 2012 we had wave 1of 5 , a clear impulse, and now we are in a wave 2 of 5.
And your AAPL chart supports that..its a 4 wave that will go down possible to where A=C, but then wave 5 will target at least 880 and most probably above 1000 and that would have positive impact to investor sentiment and indexes.

it is a pleasure discussing with you. Thanks!
Panos, it is a pleasure discussing with you as well...
Yes, we are basically agreeing that prices are going down because we are in new cyclical bear market.  In what there is an interesting discussion point is if this downfall will be bigger or not than that on 2008.
I'm sorry because I haven't introduced my "particular" labeling of waves and I have made a mistake and colored a primary wave as blue and it should have been red; as I'm showing now in this new chart but, from 1991 up to 2012.
In our chart we are showing an alternative count, considering that cycle wave 2 could be in place on 2009 and that will be the alternative you are subscribing.  In the AAPL case, we both are right and my chart is pointing to that alternative. What I was interested in showing was that it is possible that a truncate minute wave 5 is in place, so we do not expect further upside now.


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maparicio