Any questions?

Sunday, August 26, 2012

$AAPL: Our call on october 18,2011. Earnings day and what happens next. How technical analysis works."Buy the rumors and sell the news" case.

This is a nice example to show how the mass psychology works and how some technical analysis tools work. In our case we use Elliott waves and Fibonacci.

Some days before the earnings days we were calling for a "buy the rumors and sell the news" event, because, most of the crowd was very bullish with the excellent earnings that were been announced for october 18,2011. What happens next?. Well, the earnings were fabulous, more than expected, and the next day start a big sell the news, as forecasted. (Chart above)

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

AAPL 16 years, monthly chart EW count.

My only interest of posting this chart and EW count is to share with whom could be interested in analize, from the technical analisis perspective, the possibilitie that a good buisness can't grow parabolic,for ever. I think AAPL will have some pullback but, with a bias to continue been a solid buisness that,no doubt, will continue developing, inclusive more than ever, beacause they have brilliant people working there. My posting,last days, had been thinking in that a retracement was near and that we could have a rally pre-earnings and then a "sell the news". I any case, AAPL will pullback after earnings.

$AMRN: Daily EW count and forecast, updated.

On our "big picture" EW count, we are forecasting this stock is on a cycle/primary? wave 2,down to 5 or less. On the medium term count, we are calling that, this stock is on a primary/intermediate? wave c and on the short term ( december 2011-today), this stock is on a intermediate/minor? wave 5,down and on a  smaller term, this stock could be on the minor/minute? wave 2, up with a target of 14 or so. After this wave 2 could be in place, we are calling for a downfall to 5 or so.
Disclosure, we are playing with options (call and puts ), in a,very small amount of our account, because we like this roller coaster.