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Wednesday, August 8, 2012

$SPY: Relabeling EW count. Forecast is the same.

We are bored of counting and relabeling this minor wave 2,up because the short squeeze is a big one, giving markets 4 straight days of bullishness?? or,better, bear extreme fear.The point is that, nothing is changing and, inclusive, minor wave 2, could go, up to 142.20, where primary wave B was in place, and continue being a minor wave 2. Timming kills us, but,we think, our forecast is OK.

$SPX vs $NYAD: Improving our "top or bottom NYAD pattern call"

$SPX chart

$NYAD chart

We have our "Top or bottom $NYAD pattern call" and as thesis can always be improved. We are observing that, not always a extreme value is sign of a inminent top or bottom. In most cases yes, it is, a one day alert for a call but there are some cases, that we can have one or more extreme values before a top or bottom. What is clear for us, is that this extreme values are short squeeze that get prices exhausted so, "all" participants can be bull or bear at the same time so, "all participants are wrong" so, mood is going to change quickly.