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Saturday, December 29, 2012

$SPX discussion at MTA.org


4.
RE:$SPX Elliott waves count 2007 2012
From:Scott Willis
To:Elliott Wave Analysis
Posted:December 29, 2012 3:44 PM
Subject:RE:$SPX Elliott waves count 2007 2012
Message:

If the run-up since 2009 is wave 1, that means that 2000-2009 was an ABC. Call me naive, but I don't think a correction of this magnitude would begin 7 years before the major top in 2007.  The correction starting in 2007 will be my assumption  going forward unless someone can help me prove myself wrong.

Also, supporting this contention is that in a secular bear market (starting in 2007), the wave 2 correction from the lows in 2009 to present has a psychological feel.  That is one where the masses believe things are back on track, we made it through the bad stuff, and new highs are near. When in actuality, the economy is severely worse than it was at the start of wave 1!  Since I believe that's where we are  psychologically, the count from the 2009 low is a 5-3-5 zig-zag, which ended in October, 2012.  Going above 1442 will invalidate this read.  I would like to be convinced otherwise, because I'd like to be bullish again. It's much more fun!
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Scott Willis
Investment Analyst/Portfolio Manager
Trading Talents
Fort Worth, Texas
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5.
RE:$SPX Elliott waves count 2007 2012
From:Manuel Aparicio
To:Elliott Wave Analysis
Posted:December 29, 2012 4:54 PM
Subject:RE:$SPX Elliott waves count 2007 2012
Attachment(s):
Message:
Hi Scott,

I am once again exhibiting my count since 1928 to the present date, in which you can observe that in the years 1975 to 2000 a huge primary(cycle) wave 3 was developed. Price went from 72 to 1,472 in an "overwhelming" bullishness and this episode is the one responsible for the process we are now, before a cycle(supercycle) wave 3 bullish process can start its developing.
Once again, I have requested the board of Directors of the MTA for a meeting to discuss my 4 new rules to be used in the Elliott waves Market Analysis Theory; the ones I will be able to share once they have been approved.


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maparicio
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