Any questions?

Sunday, December 30, 2012

$GLD: Gold ready to rally?

GLD 2012

This is our latest EW count and a rally is near, coincidentally with a probable downfall of markets.
The symmetric triangle has been draw only for study purposses because we do not make decisions based on this type of chart patterns. For example, theory in this case is :"The symmetrical triangle is mainly considered to be a continuation pattern that signals a period of consolidation in a trend followed by a resumption of the prior trend".

What is happening on $SPX and what could happen next years with $AAPL.Trying to explained in easy words.

My brother, who is a physician, and admits becoming overwhelmed when I talk to him in technical terms asked me to explain what follows in simple terms. This is what I wrote to him and I want to share it with everybody that is not skilled or familiar with Elliott waves. "The process that has been happening to the $SPX index since the year 2,000 is none other than an account of the pay growth feast we experienced in financial markets since the year 1975, when the index was 72 points and then reached 1,472 points in the year 2000, i.e. 1,400 points in only 25 years or 1,844%.  The good news is that the bad times which have been going on now will end soon when the wave cycle or super cycle 2 is in place and marks the start a new growth cycle with a new cycle or Supercycle wave 3 that we imagine will have a more sustainable magnitude.

 Same goes for AAPL which has had a parabolic growth from 75 to 704 (878%) in only 3 years 6 months but, its process could be just starting to develop and can have huge waves up and down just as we are trying to figure up in a chart attached. Everything has its cycle and there is no forever and ever"

AAPL 2012 2019?

SPX 2000 2013

Saturday, December 29, 2012

$SPX discussion at

RE:$SPX Elliott waves count 2007 2012
From:Scott Willis
To:Elliott Wave Analysis
Posted:December 29, 2012 3:44 PM
Subject:RE:$SPX Elliott waves count 2007 2012

If the run-up since 2009 is wave 1, that means that 2000-2009 was an ABC. Call me naive, but I don't think a correction of this magnitude would begin 7 years before the major top in 2007.  The correction starting in 2007 will be my assumption  going forward unless someone can help me prove myself wrong.

Also, supporting this contention is that in a secular bear market (starting in 2007), the wave 2 correction from the lows in 2009 to present has a psychological feel.  That is one where the masses believe things are back on track, we made it through the bad stuff, and new highs are near. When in actuality, the economy is severely worse than it was at the start of wave 1!  Since I believe that's where we are  psychologically, the count from the 2009 low is a 5-3-5 zig-zag, which ended in October, 2012.  Going above 1442 will invalidate this read.  I would like to be convinced otherwise, because I'd like to be bullish again. It's much more fun!
Scott Willis
Investment Analyst/Portfolio Manager
Trading Talents
Fort Worth, Texas

Show Original Message

RE:$SPX Elliott waves count 2007 2012
From:Manuel Aparicio
To:Elliott Wave Analysis
Posted:December 29, 2012 4:54 PM
Subject:RE:$SPX Elliott waves count 2007 2012
Hi Scott,

I am once again exhibiting my count since 1928 to the present date, in which you can observe that in the years 1975 to 2000 a huge primary(cycle) wave 3 was developed. Price went from 72 to 1,472 in an "overwhelming" bullishness and this episode is the one responsible for the process we are now, before a cycle(supercycle) wave 3 bullish process can start its developing.
Once again, I have requested the board of Directors of the MTA for a meeting to discuss my 4 new rules to be used in the Elliott waves Market Analysis Theory; the ones I will be able to share once they have been approved.


$SPX & $AAPL discussion at

We are using again this blog because we need it to share this interesting conversation on the community:

RE:$SPX Elliott waves count 2007 2012
From:Manuel Aparicio
To:Elliott Wave Analysis
Posted:December 29, 2012 3:14 PM
Subject:RE:$SPX Elliott waves count 2007 2012

I have received this Message From: Panagiotis (Panos) Dantis:

Dear Manuel , I think we are not going to see new lows in S&P500 index. In 2008 we saw a panic . Such things occur only once in 100 years period. I do agree that we are in new cyclical bear market, but from Elliot point of view, 2009 up to 2012 we had wave 1of 5 , a clear impulse, and now we are in a wave 2 of 5.
And your AAPL chart supports that..its a 4 wave that will go down possible to where A=C, but then wave 5 will target at least 880 and most probably above 1000 and that would have positive impact to investor sentiment and indexes.

it is a pleasure discussing with you. Thanks!
Panos, it is a pleasure discussing with you as well...
Yes, we are basically agreeing that prices are going down because we are in new cyclical bear market.  In what there is an interesting discussion point is if this downfall will be bigger or not than that on 2008.
I'm sorry because I haven't introduced my "particular" labeling of waves and I have made a mistake and colored a primary wave as blue and it should have been red; as I'm showing now in this new chart but, from 1991 up to 2012.
In our chart we are showing an alternative count, considering that cycle wave 2 could be in place on 2009 and that will be the alternative you are subscribing.  In the AAPL case, we both are right and my chart is pointing to that alternative. What I was interested in showing was that it is possible that a truncate minute wave 5 is in place, so we do not expect further upside now.


Tuesday, December 4, 2012

We will be out of service on our blog:, until further notice.

To our dear readers of our blog and followers  on StockTwits, Twitter and tradingview, we inform you that we will  use our extra time that our civil engineering profession and employer on the industries of construction and real estate, to prepare a book where, we will introduce our new 4 rules for elliott waves, including the seventh rule: "accuracy" and proper use of various tools of technical analysis, provided that the basin is in the Fibonacci sequence and other observations we noticed the market behavior in particular situations.

Best regards

$AMRN: EW count and forecast.3 EW rules & our 4 new EW rules OK.

We have recently share with the community our seventh new EW rule and in the,above,chart we are checkin with the 3 EW rules and our new 4 EW rules.  

$SPX: EW count and forecast with first three EW rules & our fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh rules OK.

We have present, some days ago, our seventh EW rule: Accuracy This chart, above, is with all seven rules OK.

Monday, December 3, 2012

$AMRN: More about EW rules.

This is what we mean with dramatic definition, red or black when a first or third wave is in place. Here is where our fourth, fifth and sixth EW rules can help but with a lot of work and markets move quickly.

$AMRN: Our seventh EW rule: ACCURACY.

In this chart, in real time, we whant to show you, what we mean by accuracy.

Saturday, December 1, 2012

Our seventh EW rule: "Accuracy"

We have twited, some minutes ago, in Stocktwits, our seventh EW rule: "The accuracy", as waves react exactly to Fibonacci, inclusive with decimals. Under the twit, we are reposting from May 21, 2012 

Monday, May 21, 2012 when we call for the change of direction in the $SPX chart, because the third Elliott Waves rule: Wave four can't invade territory of wave 1 and wave one was in place at 1,292.66 and so it happens.Price, later return the downside but after confusing the market.

@ppearlman @howardlindzon $SPX $AAPL" /This is our seventh EW rule: Accuracy Waves react exactly to Fibonacci decimals

$SPX: More about the 1,292.66 pivot point as third EW rule.

IF price continue respecting the third EW rule: " A wave 4 can't invade wave 1 territory", the 60 min MACD can give us,later, some confirmation for a change of mood in markets.

We think that, maybe, wave 5 is in play with price action at this hour : 13:11 ET

MACD breaking downtrend line. Good signal to the bull theory. 14:45 ET