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Wednesday, August 29, 2012

$SPX: 30 min chart.EW count and forecast. Wave c of 4,down, in play?


IF wave b is in place, as we are calling and wave c is down, we should see a test of 1,380 and, IF, 1,380 works as support we could see a new "mini" rally to 1,420. IF 1,380 don´t works as a support we could se a bigger downfall.

Monday, August 27, 2012

$SPX: 10 min chart.EOD EW count and forecast



Four days ago, we call that wave b of 4 down was in play. Today we are posting the two alternatives. The first one is with wave b in place and the second one is with wave b, still in play.

Sunday, August 26, 2012

$AAPL: Our call on october 18,2011. Earnings day and what happens next. How technical analysis works."Buy the rumors and sell the news" case.


This is a nice example to show how the mass psychology works and how some technical analysis tools work. In our case we use Elliott waves and Fibonacci.

Some days before the earnings days we were calling for a "buy the rumors and sell the news" event, because, most of the crowd was very bullish with the excellent earnings that were been announced for october 18,2011. What happens next?. Well, the earnings were fabulous, more than expected, and the next day start a big sell the news, as forecasted. (Chart above)

Tuesday, October 18, 2011


AAPL 16 years, monthly chart EW count.

My only interest of posting this chart and EW count is to share with whom could be interested in analize, from the technical analisis perspective, the possibilitie that a good buisness can't grow parabolic,for ever. I think AAPL will have some pullback but, with a bias to continue been a solid buisness that,no doubt, will continue developing, inclusive more than ever, beacause they have brilliant people working there. My posting,last days, had been thinking in that a retracement was near and that we could have a rally pre-earnings and then a "sell the news". I any case, AAPL will pullback after earnings.

$AMRN: Daily EW count and forecast, updated.


On our "big picture" EW count, we are forecasting this stock is on a cycle/primary? wave 2,down to 5 or less. On the medium term count, we are calling that, this stock is on a primary/intermediate? wave c and on the short term ( december 2011-today), this stock is on a intermediate/minor? wave 5,down and on a  smaller term, this stock could be on the minor/minute? wave 2, up with a target of 14 or so. After this wave 2 could be in place, we are calling for a downfall to 5 or so.
Disclosure, we are playing with options (call and puts ), in a,very small amount of our account, because we like this roller coaster.

Friday, August 24, 2012

$SPX: 10 days,10 min chart. EW count and forecast update.


Yesterday we post a chart where we are forecasting a wave 4, down to 1,380. This wave has sub waves a,b and c. Maybe wave b in play and soon will be in place, starting a downfall, again as an wave c of 4.

$AMRN: EW count and forecast. Target area zone.




Thursday, August 23, 2012

$SPX:EW count and forecast.15 min chart.


On tuesday we post the chart,below, and the chart,above, could be a legitimate EW count. Of course there are alternative counts.



Tuesday, August 21, 2012

$SPX: Daily EW count and forecast. Primary wave B continue in play. Forecast is the same. Big downfall as Primary wave C plays.


We have been calling that primary wave B was in place and we were wrong. Wrong us but not the method of EW counting. Some days ago we post a count trying to figure out the possibility of a minor wave 4 and we,wrongly, found that there was no way but, today, we have found the count that makes this possibility real, because price has break today the 1,422.38 line,so our count of a primary wave B in place was not real. Check it out and maybe, this time we can nailed.

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

$SPX: Daily EW count and forecast. Primary wave B continue in play. Forecast is the same. Big downfall as Primary wave C plays.


We have been calling that primary wave B was in place and we were wrong. Wrong us but not the method of EW counting. Some days ago we post a count trying to figure out the possibility of a minor wave 4 and we,wrongly, found that there was no way but, today, we have found the count that makes this possibility real, because price has break today the 1,422.38 line,so our count of a primary wave B in place was not real. Check it out and maybe, this time we can nailed.

Monday, August 20, 2012

$AMRN: Weekly chart. EW count and forecast.Bigger picture


Some time ago we posted the big picture of  EW count from AMRN and we forecast that Stock is, actually, in a primary wave c of cycle 2, down. This particularly wave 3,down, we can´t specify the degree at this moment.

$AAPL: New ressistance to break isn´t horizontal. It´s diagonal.


We are using Pitchfork combined with Fibonacci.

Sunday, August 19, 2012

$EURUSD: 60 min EW count and forecast w/Pitchfork


Pitchfork giving first signs of momentum lagging and EW count tell us from the possibility of a wave 3,down,starting.

$AMRN: Our forecast from Agust 10, continue on play.














Friday, August 10, 2012

$AMRN: Wave 4 in place.

$AAPL: Daily EW count w/ Pitchfork


Pitchfork shows a gaining in momentum but touching the median. The median will tell us more of the story,tomorrow.

$VIX: Daily EW count and forecast w/ Pitchfork.


Watching the Pitchfork (fibonacci) lines in this chart, momentum to the upside is gaining some stream.

$ES_F: Daily EW count and forecast w/ Pitchfork and parallel lines.


This chart can help to see how momentum is lagging, seen pitchfork and upside parallel line is testing price.

Saturday, August 18, 2012

$FB: EW count and forecast.




On may 21, we forecast a downfall for FB. On July 27, we forecast the continuation of the downfall, as you can see on:  https://www.tradingview.com/v/GT5q5zr9/ where we wrote " Target,first hours on monday and after, continues the down fall.", but now we are forecasting that soon will come a big retracement. (Chart above)




Monday, May 21, 2012


$FB: Ew count and forecast.



FB is starting to develop on stock markets. Only 1 1/2 sessions and is giving its first steps in EW count and fibonacci retracements. Its to early to try to forecast some direction in the medium and long time period, but, maybe in the very short term it maybe seems to be due to go south.

Friday, August 17, 2012

$AAPL: 2 year daily chart. EW count and forecast.


We think that AAPL will be the one that, when it starts the retracement primary wave 4,down, will bring the overall market down so, this is the one to watch next days.

$SPX: EW count and forecast.


Disclosure: We are bearish from 1,390 and yes we have lost this rally but, we prefer wait in cash (not our case) or with a bearish ETF (our case) because we are forecasting not a healthy downfall but a "big" one.

$VIX: New low in 5 years.Very,very bearish


Every body is talking about the new high in AAPL but VIX has a new,5 years, low and that is very,very bearish.

$AAPL: New high.Relabeling our EW count.Weekly chart.


Long picture count continues the same and we expect a downfall as wave 4, when this primary wave 3 is going to be in place.

$SPX: Only 1 ressistance to maintain our EW count 1,422.38


Thursday, August 16, 2012

$SPX: Near 1,415.32. First of 2, super ressistances.


$INDU vs $TRAN: New high for $INDU but not for $TRAN


$SPX: Ressistances and supports. Count continue in place.


Our supprts and ressistances continue in place and the SPX is the one that moves with the interaction of 500 stocks and SPY is an ETF from SPX. We have posted before that SPY broke the HS neckline one day before SPX and we have posted charts of SPX,SPY and $ES_F showing that they are not 100% correlated. What happen a few minutes ago, with SPY is a lost battle for the bears but not the war. We are going to be more cautelous from now on.

$SPY: Tug of war area of last? battle bulls vs bears.











  1. Perutrader
    $SPY: Tug of war is: bulls have to beat 141.48 and bears have to beat 141.29// each min, odds favor bears
  2. Perutrader
    $SPY: Tug of war is: bulls have to beat 141.48 and bears have to beat 141.29

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

$SPX: EW count and forecast. Very shaking, intermediate wave 2!!


We have posted charts with EW counts, comparing SPX vs VIX, Comparing SPX vs SPY and ES_F and showing the possibilities of market shaking,showing the ultimate ressistance so, our count is correct but this shake,before the fall, is very tricky and we are bored of making the minor counts so we present this chart with the 2 ultimate ressistance and the 3 "third possible EW rules lines"

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

$AAPL: On the edge of bullishnes. HOD very near to 644


$SPX $SPY and $ES_F: EW count and forecast.Our count contnues intact...til today.




The most closer to the very top of our Primary wave B is the SPY chart. Until todays.You can observe that the correlation in-between charts isn´t 100% and in one case, the red line is been tested and in others the green line is been tested.



ES_F Chart


SPY Chart


SPX Chart

Monday, August 13, 2012

$SPX vs $ES_F: Very interesting tips from last months price activity.


This SPX vs ES_F has another history to tell us because primary wave B was first in place in the futures chart and also has another peak at 1,411.5, with the minute wave 2, so we think this is the maximum retrace for the ES_F if we try to compare to the SPX and SPY charts.

$SPX vs $SPY: Very interesting tips from last months price activity


We love making money trading, as all of us pretend, but also love triyng to get one step further, each day, in our comprehension of markets behavior and trying to watch if there are tips that you can only see if you want a bit more, than only making or loosing money and, we are trying to share with our blog readers IF you are also interested as us. In this case we are watching that the SPX and the SPY price action, aren´t 100% equal and that, very little differences can make the diference, as we are showing in our SPX vs SPY chart.

$SPY vs $NYAD: 15 min chart showing bearish divergenge.


SPY chart


NYAD chart

$NYAD is the NYSE advance-decline issues, that means if index is above 0, more equitys are been buy than sell.This is bullish and viceversa, is bearish. In our case, on the last days, price has been raising but each day, more equitys has been sell than bought.

$SPY: EOD EW count. What can make markets, next hours or days,to shake more all of us?.


We posted that,IF SPY finish, near but below 140.89 that will be very good for bears and we think, that has happen. IF markets want to shake more to all of us, we have draw, one possibility.

$SPY: 1 min chart EW count. Waves 1 and 2 have to finish sometime.


AAPL: Weekly divergence.Bearish.



Some days ago we posted our forecast. The daily chart, maybe, can be seen with bullish eyes but, the weekly chart is bearish because the big divergence with the MACD.







Monday, August 6, 2012

$AAPL: EW count and forecast. Daily and 1 hr charts. Wave 2 in place??


On august 3, we post our long term EW count and today, we are posting our short EW count with last waves. Maybe intermediate wave 2 is in place or very near to be on it.

$SPY: 139.82 will confirm a downtrend.


Blue line is the top. Green line is de double fail peak. Green line will confirm downtrend.


Sunday, August 12, 2012

$SPX: EW count. Trying to figure a new weekly high above 1,422.38


Chart 1: Primary wave B is in place.


Chart 2: Primary wave B is in play.

Our EW count considers that primary wave B is in place (chart 1) so, 1,422.38 is the highest value before, cycle wave 2, down, is in place. IF primary wave B is in place, it also means that primary wave C, down, is in play so, this wave will have 5 waves and we are counting intermediate wave 1, in place and intermediate wave 2, up, in play. wave 1 is an impulsive wave and wave 2, should be a retracement wave. In chart 1, wave 1 looks as an impulsive wave and wave 2, looks as an retracement wave.

Chart 2, shows us a EW count with primary wave B in play. This count don't respect the third EW count and,also, wave 5, doesn't look as an impulsive wave, in our honest opinion.

We consider that this rally can't surpass the 1,422.38 resistance line.

Wednesday, August 8, 2012

$SPY: Relabeling EW count. Forecast is the same.


We are bored of counting and relabeling this minor wave 2,up because the short squeeze is a big one, giving markets 4 straight days of bullishness?? or,better, bear extreme fear.The point is that, nothing is changing and, inclusive, minor wave 2, could go, up to 142.20, where primary wave B was in place, and continue being a minor wave 2. Timming kills us, but,we think, our forecast is OK.

$SPX vs $NYAD: Improving our "top or bottom NYAD pattern call"



$SPX chart


$NYAD chart

We have our "Top or bottom $NYAD pattern call" and as thesis can always be improved. We are observing that, not always a extreme value is sign of a inminent top or bottom. In most cases yes, it is, a one day alert for a call but there are some cases, that we can have one or more extreme values before a top or bottom. What is clear for us, is that this extreme values are short squeeze that get prices exhausted so, "all" participants can be bull or bear at the same time so, "all participants are wrong" so, mood is going to change quickly.