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Tuesday, July 31, 2012

$SPY: 1 min chart to show the battle around the 138.19 trigger. Tomorrow-way down.


Early we posted that 138.19 was the trigger for the way down. A second post was to alert that the 138.19 line was broke,so the trigger was done and now we are showing how this 138.19 was the action pivot,today. We think that the way down is tiggered.

$SPY: Way down was triggered?. We think so.


We stick to our 138.19 trigger for the way down mode. Now price is raising, but maybe as a wave 2,up and maybe the D day can take one or more days because market have to shake participants? and maybe we are wrong?. Be careful with this tricky moves of markets. We will wait in bearish mode but, maybe is better on the sidelines?.

$AAPL: Daily chart with EW count and forecast. Wave 2,up, near to be in place?


We are calling, from some time ago, that AAPL have a primary wave 4,down, in play and have to retrace more.

$SPY: The "D" day. Complete 3 hour charts w/ HS,Fibonacci and EW count and forecast.


We are posting this complete chart, so we don't have to remember last post and, because 138.19 is our "clue line". If price breaks down this point, for us, this will be the trigger for the way down.

$SPY: Waiting the last push up?


We continue thinking in a last push up,before the way down, We will wait in bearish mode.
Disclousure: We have buy SPXU and we are not recommending nothing.

Monday, July 30, 2012

$SPY: Tomorrow morning a last attempt to the 139.33 Neckline ressistance?


As we are calling, from some days ago. The HS neckline,now at 139.33 could be a hard and invatible ressistance to price and today we call, a last attempt to break this ressistance, but it seems as tomorrow will be this last? push from bulls.

$AMRN: Wave 3,down, in play.


Our Sunday call was right and AMRN has start a "very hard" fall as a wave 3 is in play.



Sunday, July 29, 2012


Daily chart


We found this stock on the "heat map" from stocktwits.com and we find a very interesting trading opportunity because, first, it has a downfall from 1,400 to 0.44 on 8 years and now is on 13.51 a 3,000% grow in only 3 years. We think that the EW count is on a Primary wave 5,down and on a Intermediate wave 3,down,starting or very near, to start. IF we are right,this stock could go down,very hard again and after this, start a very big rally. We will check out closely this stock because is a grab trading opportunity.



$BAC: "Third EW rule" line, is been a mighty ressistance.


SPY and BAC have common battles. The first has a mighty ressistance in the HS neckline and BAC has it´s own battle with a mighty ressistance as the "Third EW rule" line.

$SPY:New attack to the neckline resistance.


Maybe, markets can attempt again to the resistance line (neckline), but there is a possibility that there is no more strengh. In case there is strengh, we have mark an target area for this rally?

$SPY: Markets preparing the downfall?


In this hour chart, we can watch how prices are pushing, again, to the neckline of the HS(indicated in last post) but with an,very, overbought condition in the MACD and starting to loose momentum. Markets, as always, need to confuse the participants, before a major move and we think this is the case.

Sunday, July 29, 2012

$AMRN: EW count and forecast.Nice stock to trade.



Monthly chart

Daily chart


We found this stock on the "heat map" from stocktwits.com and we find a very interesting trading opportunity because, first, it has a downfall from 1,400 to 0.44 on 8 years and now is on 13.51 a 3,000% grow in only 3 years. We think that the EW count is on a Primary wave 5,down and on a Intermediate wave 3,down,starting or very near, to start. IF we are right,this stock could go down,very hard again and after this, start a very big rally. We will check out closely this stock because is a grab trading opportunity.

$EURUSD: Monthly EW count and forecast. Our Monthly,November 3,2011 continues on play


The chart,below is our post from November 3,2011. We have changed, a bit ,our count, considering now cycle waves instead of primary waves and also the position of primary wave 1 of cycle wave 3, but the original count is still in play, because we forecast on november 3,2011 a target in-between 1 and 1.13 and now, July 29,2012, we are targeting in-between 0.87 and 1.15. A bigger range but a possible range.





Thursday, November 3, 2011


EURUSD Big picture. EW count w/monthly,weekly,daily charts

 We will not put much words to this EURUSD EW analysis, from the first chart,above, which is, the "all time" monthly chart to the last one,below,which is a year daily chart.We can discuss about this count and maybe could be some relabeling to do but,for us is a count that help to understand the "big picture" and also show the correlation with the SPX charts with,obvious, differences,because the EURUSD is relatively new and the SPX is older and have cycle waves.

$AAPL: Monthly EW count and forecast.


We have been sticking with this count, since third quarter last year. In this case we are working with Fibonacci, fan lines, retracements and Pitchfork lines(using fibonacci). Wave 4 target, if we are right, could be in-between: 445 and 314.

Saturday, July 28, 2012

$SPX: Monthly EW count and forecast.Now, using pitchfork.


This chart is more of our forecast, since third quarter of last year, but this time using Pitchfork, so we can have a new tool for check out next movements.

Friday, July 27, 2012

$BAC: Near the resistance "Third EW rule" at 7.4


$SPX: EW count and forecast.We turn to Bearish mode

Below is our post from yesterday. We think that, on monday will come a downfall??

$SPX: EW waves and forecast. Last push up of wave 2, as forecasted before?



$BAC: EW count and forecast. Consolidation pattern and then pop up.


IF we are right, the 3 "Third EW rule" lines should work in each case.

$BAC: EW count and forecast. Preparing for the jump to 7.35?


When price will be on 7.30 or something we will turn to bearish mode.

Consolidation Pattern. As our own knowledge.


We are trying to detect some patterns that repeats on price charts.  The chart,above, shows what happens in-between two pop ups, that usually are waves 3 of some kind. In our observations, we have learn that, usually, after a pop up and a retrace, there are 3 stages before the next pop up,if rally continues. For us, stage 1 is during wave a of 4 developing. Stage 2 is during wave b of 4 developing and stage 3 is during wave c of 4 developing. We share this with you, only as our way of thinking.

$EURUSD: Reposting our july 8, post. 1.2405 is a severe resistance


Only to remember the third EW rule at 1.2405.Cheers! 

Felices fiestas patrias a los traders del Peru!



Sunday, July 8, 2012


Thursday, July 26, 2012

$EURUSD: Consolidation mode 2. Interesant pattern.


Five hour ago we posted (below) that EURUSD was in consolidation mode. Forecasting is not only up or down because there is a third move: sideways, and it´s important to manage it. Above, we are giving some hours more for this consolidation mode.

$EURUSD: Consolidation mode.


Consolidation mode is a very boring stage, because price fluctuates in a tight range and could last, inclusive, 24 hours. We are bullish after this consolidation finish.



$EURUSD: Consolidation mode.


Consolidation mode is a very boring stage, because price fluctuates in a tight range and could last, inclusive, 24 hours. We are bullish after this consolidation finish.

$BAC: EW count and forecast.


This is only a wish, a thinking, but we stick to our target at 7.35.

$SPY: 5 min chart.EW count and forecast.


In this chart we can see in more detail what could be the development of this wave 3 of c of 2,up

$SPX: EW waves and forecast. Last push up of wave 2, as forecasted before?


Monday, July 23, 2012

$SPY: Time to remember our calls for a big downfall on 2011.



We have been calling, since last quarter 2011, the possibility of a downfall of prices because, our EW count indicates that cycle wave 1 was in place on 2007 and a cycle wave 2, down, was on play and this wave could take prices to the 600 area, again. It can be worst but we think that the odds can favor, only, a 61.8% retracement from top on 2007.

We are reposting two of many post were we have been calling these scenario when all analyst where bullish.


Monday, November 28, 2011

SPY Future nightmare.Can it be?



This is more of what we have been doing the last weeks. Trying to compare the 2007-2009 market sinking with, what we think is a 2010-2012 market sinking?. This time no words because, each one of our readers have their own thoughts. This is, our thought.

SPY Our 5 super calls, posted on 10.30.2011

This chart and the 5 "super calls" was posted on sunday 10.30.2011 trying to get clues for next monday 10.31.2011 and next days. 4 of the calls were GOOD CALLS!, and the fifth call is in his way to be OK?,only time and "king price" will determined if this call will be a good call.

$ES_F: Pitchfork to give some clues for next hours moves.


It´s obvious that markets are on a reef and prices can move down quickly but, maybe, there can be a little space to a last? push up. IF so we have to be very careful.

Saturday, July 21, 2012

$AAPL: Short term and long run forecast.


Triying to use pitchfork with fibonacci format. We are confident of it´s utility to check out momemtum and, IF we are right, price need a pullback  before down falling.



$SPY: EW count and forecast. 1 hour chart. Due for last push up?


This is an alternative count that, for coincidence, could be a,short time, bullish setup with $AAPL earnings. Target for wave 2: 138.53. This count is using fibonacci extensions.Fibonacci rules the mass psychological mood. This is for my record.
The principal count, looking only the TA price indicators, should be that wave 2 is in place.


Thursday, July 19, 2012

$SPY: EW count and forecast.Due for a retracement?


Wave c of 2,up, in play. Prices are, maybe, due for a retracement to the 136 area,

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

$SPX: EW count and forecast.


This is only an update of our count and forecast from some days ago. Target continues as a maximun of 1,400 or a kiss to the HS neckline.

Monday, July 16, 2012

$BAC: EW count and forecast. Target continues on 8.4

Our target continues on 8.4. The alternative count, up to 10 is also staying but we think that AAPL earnings could b the catalyzer to the way down of markets.

$spy: EW count and forecast. Our count seems to continue in play.


Target continues in 140.

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

$SPY: EW count and forecast. Both counts points to 140.


If support of wave 2 is in place, now should come a wave 3,up.
Cheers from NY.

Monday, July 9, 2012

Saturday, July 7, 2012

$SPX: Alternative count in daily chart. Wave 2 in play & target: 1,400


This is a possible alternative count that favors the odds to a last push up to 1,400 (+/-).
We like this alternative because, it not only respects our Elliott waves( retracement & fan lines) and fibonacci analysis, but also respect the Head and shoulder, neckline and pullback target, develop in-between February and April and, now, we are using a new(for us) tool as Pitchfork lines, that is also based on fibonacci( for us fibonacci is king). With this last tool, we are detecting that price is loosing momentum, because price can't surpass the 50% line and has found support at is low range so, a last push to the 38.2% line is due and, IF we are correct all the odds are alignment.

Friday, July 6, 2012

$SPY: Wave 4?


$SPY: 134.33 is critical level to comfirm or negate our bearish count.


IF 134.33 acts as an support our bullish count,up to 1,390, could be a valid alternative. IF price surpass 134.33 that increments the odds for our call for a way down to 600 area.

$EURUSD: 10 min chart.Third EW rule call, nailed.







Today, early in the morning we forecast wave 4 as a maximum retrace, up to 1.2405 and retraced to 1.2404. Third EW rule works very good.

$EURUSD: EW count and forecast.


We are short and will live our position overnight. Our stop loss is slightly above 1.2405 because wave 4 can't surpass this line IF we are right so our count respect third EW rule.

$EURUSD: EW count and forecast.


We are short and will live our position overnight. Our stop loss is slightly above 1.2405 because wave 4 can't surpass this line IF we are right so our count respect third EW rule.

Thursday, July 5, 2012

$EURUSD: 2 years,daily chart. EW count and forecast.


Our final target of 1.15 +/- continues intact.

$SPY: 15 min chart. EW count and forecast. Minor wave 2,in place?


$SPY: 60 min chart.EW count and forecast.


Minute wave 4 has respect territory of minute wave 1. This is an arbitrary count, because waves should be count as a,b and c, but we like the respect of third EW rule. If you prefer, the correct count should be minute wave a (where wave 1), minute wave b (where wave 2) and wave c ( where  we count waves 3 and 4, and wave 5, should be on play,If not in place).

Monday, July 2, 2012

$SPY: EW count and forecast.


Yes, it was a wave 4, but one of minor degree, so EOD we can have wave 3 orange in place and tomorrow, we can get  the orange wave 4, in play, down to 134/134.5

$SPY: Wave 4 retracement?


We call on saturday to a retracement as a wave 4. Target could be down to 134-134.5?