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Tuesday, June 5, 2012

$SPX: EW count and forecast.New alternative count.


Since last months of 2011 we are calling for the "BIG and real downfall". Not because we want bad things for people but, because we believe so much in EW and Fibonacci. In this months, we have try different alternative counts but, all with the same end, in a crash down to 600, minimum. We also believe that this crash will set in place to cycle wave 2,down, so this will mean that the crisis will end too and will start a new growing age for the world, as a cycle wave 3,up.

Until some days ago we were believing that minor wave 4 was near to be in place but, if price broken 1,277.45, this alternative will be negated and, when price finally stop at 1,266.03, we choose an, more bearish, alternative as primary wave B was in place at the end of April and now, markets were going down. In the short time, our count was bullish in any one of the alternatives and in the last case, maybe a wave 2,up, was in play.

This new alternative is considering that minor wave 3, isn't yet in place and what was in place was minute wave 3 and now, minute wave 4, that,also, has respect the third EW rule ( wave 4 can't invade wave 1 territory). In this alternative count we have to consider the neckline of the HS ( dotted orange line) and then the third EW rule for minor wave 4 at 1,277.45 and, again, the neckline of the HS to finally get the minor wave 5, in place and also the intermediate wave c and the primary wave B, so primary wave C will start its way down to the 600 area to finally put in place the cycle wave 2.

As always, these only represent our way of thinking but, could be useful for someone to know what alternatives could be in play.

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