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Friday, March 30, 2012

$SPX: 2 min chart EW count and forecast.


$SPX: EW count and forecast





We continue the wave 4,down,count. Wave a could be in place and now wave b in play.


Thursday, March 29, 2012

$SPX: Maybe, a little push to the 1,397-1,399 area before continuing it's way to 1,375?


$SPX: EW count and forecast update.


Our last days forecast is going fine. As you can see in this chart, 1,391 is the 23.61% retracement and some support is expect. If this support is break next stop could be 1,375.





$SPX: EOD EW count and forecast for next days.




If we are right in our forecast,below, and this is effectively a little wave 4,up, target could be in place or very near. If this is a wave 4,then next days we could see the continuation of the bigger wave 4 with a preliminary target of 1, 375. 

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Coffee: EW count, updated.



This is an update to our post from march 7. We can see that the 50% retracement has been reached,in the monthly chart and in the daily chart we can see a possibility that the retrace is finish,in case this is a wave 4 or a pullback is due for next months and then continue it's way down.

Wednesday, March 7, 2012


$COFFEE: Monthly and daily EW count. Wave 4 or wave 2 & targets

$SPX: EOD EW count and forecast for next days.




If we are right in our forecast,below, and this is effectively a little wave 4,up, target could be in place or very near. If this is a wave 4,then next days we could see the continuation of the bigger wave 4 with a preliminary target of 1, 375. 




Wednesday, March 28, 2012

$SPX: 14:52 ET. Target area for little wave 4 up.


$SPX: 1 year daily chart. EW count and forecast.


Tuesday, March 27, 2012

$AAPL: EW count and forecast "for the record"


$SPX: EW count and forecast "for the record"


Since price broke our last "clue point" so our HS and neckline could be in play we have been trying to forecast this bear rally, because this Intermediate wave B is part of a bearish cycle wave 2,down and we are posting this forecast for our own record. Our principal points to watch are:

 1.- The end of  wave 3 of c of B at 1,442.
2.- The end of wave 4 of c of B at 1,282
3.- The end of wave 5 of c of B at 1,488

We stick to our overall forecast of a cycle wave 2 down. What is more difficult to try to forecast is timing.


Friday, March 23, 2012

$ES_F: 60 min chart w/fibonacci EMAs updated.




This chart is an update from yesterday post and we find that the EMA (233), orange, has been the support area for the last 24 hours. Now, next leg down?





Thursday, March 22, 2012

$ES_F: 60 min chart with a battery of fibonacci EMAs



We believe a lot about fibonacci participation in stock markets. In this case, we are drawing the fibonacci sequence as EMAs and find interesting clues. We are now at the 233 (EMA) support that has been an important support in the last 2 months.

Thursday, March 22, 2012

$ES_F: 60 min chart with a battery of fibonacci EMAs



We believe a lot about fibonacci participation in stock markets. In this case, we are drawing the fibonacci sequence as EMAs and find interesting clues. We are now at the 233 (EMA) support that has been an important support in the last 2 months.

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

$INDU - $TRAN: Dow theory. Similarities and differences



Dow Jones Industrial


Dow Jones Transport

Dow theoryThe two averages should be moving in the same direction. When the performance of the averages diverge, it is a warning that change is in the air (wikipedia).

In the first divergence,Dow Transport reaches a new high but Dow Industrial don't and some time before we saw a fall of both indices.

Now, with the second divergence, is Dow Industrial the one that reaches a new high and Dow Transport don't. We will expect a fall of both indices,soon?.

In the blue circles we are showing the coincides and in the red circles we are showing some differences.


Tuesday, March 13, 2012

$SPX: Relabel of EW count from sunday post.


On sunday, we post a forecast if primary wave B of cycle 2 isn't in place. Yesterday we label the first wave 4,down as a much bigger wave,so we post as wave b of 4 was in game and 1,378 was it's target. With today's price action this possibility is negated and we are relabeling as the first wave 4 is in place and today is in game the first wave 5 up. The neckline we have been posting last weeks is working again,today.

Below is our sunday post:

Sunday, March 11, 2012


$SPX: Forecast? if primary wave B of cycle wave 2 isn't in place



These 3.5 years, daily chart is for trying to forecast the probably movements of price, until wave B could be reached.

Monday, March 12, 2012

$SPX: A last push,tomorrow, to 1,378 area?


Maybe a last push,tomorrow,up to 1,378 area so wave b of 4 could be in place?.

$SPX: EW count update. Wave b of 4,near to be in place?


We post,yesterday, a forecast, in case wave B is still in play. If this is right, this count is our next day forecast.

Sunday, March 11, 2012

$SPX: Forecast? if primary wave B of cycle wave 2 isn't in place



These 3.5 years, daily chart is for trying to forecast the probably movements of price, until wave B could be reached.

Saturday, March 10, 2012

$SPX: Calling a multiyear "mega" megaphone top.



The monthly chart we show above shows our "mega" megaphone top of about 10 years of developing process.
A megaphone top or bottom are formed after huge rallys or big falls of price and markets enter on indecision and higher highs and lower lows are one after the other. In the charts,below, we present 3 examples of megaphones, tops or bottoms.


Example 1: megaphone top ( may-jul 2007)


Example 2: megaphone bottom ( nov 2008-mar 2009)



Example 3: megaphone bottom  (may-jul 2010)


We are pasting,below, our post from september 29,2011.One of our first posts in this blog. In that post we alert about a megaphone bottom and,inclusive, we forecast a probable target,up, near where price is now.



Thursday, September 29, 2011

Calling Again Megaphone Bottom in SPY ( Really 2 Bottoms)

 This 60 min chart,2 months, show the BIG megaphone bottom. 2 Months and waves 3,4 and 5 (blue)
This 60 min chart,1 month, show the LITTLE megaphone bottom.1 month and the 5 finaly waves of wave 5 (blue).
If two of this megaphone bottom pattern doesn't work, what can work. 

Thursday, March 8, 2012

$ES_F: EW count.



Wave 3 of 5 of c of 2 is in place and wave 4 of 5 of c of 2 is near to be in place.Then last? wave 5 of 5 of c of 2 and wave 2 can be in place. If we are right, after that, will start a wave 3 down.

$ES_F: EW count. Wave c of 2 in process?



Maybe, waves 3 & 4 of c of 2,in place.

$ES_F: Wave 4 negated. Alternative wave 2 in play.


As we posted yesterday, we forecast waves without alternatives. When forecast fails is when we focus on alternative count.
Elliot waves theory define impulsive and retrace waves. In this case we are forecasting? that the trend has changed because wave B is in place,so we have impulsive waves 1,3 & 5 down and retracement waves 2 & 4 up. If we are right and the impulsive trend is down then we will have as alternatives retracements, waves 2 and 4.
The maximum retrace that this wave 2 can have,if we are right, is 100%.

$ES_F: EW count. Maybe wave 4 in place?


Wednesday, March 7, 2012

$COFFEE: Monthly and daily EW count. Wave 4 or wave 2 & targets





A good friend of our blog is interested in the development of the price of Coffee,that is an commodity.
What we can see, in the monthly chart, is that a wave 3 or,alternative, wave 1 is in place and a wave 4 or,alternative,wave 2 is in play. If wave 4,it's maximum target could be to the 50% retracement (orange) and if wave 2,it's maximum target could be 100% retracement.Both waves are obligatory retracement waves and will have 3 sub waves, a,b & c.

In the daily chart we can see that,maybe, price is in an wave 3 down.

$SPX: EW count. Relabeling wave 4 w/max target at 1,355.78






Most trading blogs use alternatives counts, without taking risks, and after markets hours are closed. We prefer to use alternative counts after our count fail and we work in real time with the risk it means and, that's why we posted our target today at 10:35 am ET. 
We are moving our, orange, wave 4 and working now with the green wave 4. Our orange maximum target was 1,352.98 and now is 1,355.78

$SPX: Ready to next leg of wave 4?. Target 38.2%-50% retracement.


$SPX: EW count. Wave 4 developing while $ES_F has reached 38.2% before bell.



We are watching and trying to understand this divergence between both indices of SPX .

$ES_F: EW count. Wave 4 in target zone.


As posted yesterday, price is touching the 38.2% retracement. If this is a wave 4, it's maximum upside is to 50% retracement.

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

$ES_F: EW count. Maybe,wave a of wave 4 up is done.Now wave b down.


$SPX: Intraday EW count. Next target.





We feel more comfort with this alternate count of our early count (@Chiclayo you now why).
Our target is in-between the 38.2% and 50% retracement.

$AAPL: EW count and forecast target in 455-475


$SPX: EW count. This could be wave 3 of a of 4,down.


As we have posted before,this could be a wave 3 of the wave a of the wave 4 that we have target in about 1,285.00

$GLD: EW relabel. Continues it's way to target: 141.7, as an wave 3,down.




Yesterday we post the alternative wave 4 wasn't reached yet, but it was with only a 38.2% of retracement which could mean that wave 3 is strong down.




Thursday, March 1, 2012


$GLD: Wave 3, down, as forecasted on Feb 7?. Target: 141.7






As we posted on February 7, GLD seems to be in a wave 3 dow. We continue with our forecast intact.

Monday, March 5, 2012

$GLD: EW count and forecast for tomorrow.


As posted before, GLD is ,maybe, in a wave 3,down,development. Tomorrow GLD can have a push up to 168.93, to complete wave c of wave 4,up.

$SPX: Intraday EW count. 10 min chart.



If we are right and primary wave B is in place,for once, market could be in the initial stages of the wave 4 down,that,as you must know, has 3 sub-waves,a,b and c.Now in wave a.

$SPX: Moment to se big picture,again?. Monthly,weekly and daily charts



Some days ago we posted about waves 4 and 5 of wave B to come in next days,weeks?. For those that not read our blog, we have relabel our count because, first we put in place wave B with 04.29.2011 high at 1,363.61 and that's why we stick to our first "clue line" at that level, but price went a bit more  high 03.01.2012 , up to 1,374.09 (daily EOD) and, that is very near to our 78.6% retracement (1,373.94) from 2007 high to 2009 low, so we will stick now to our new "clue line" in 1,373.94. This not means that wave 5 ( wave B) has to go, necessarily, up to that point,it means that can't pass that point.

Below, we are reposting our "big picture" of 90 years of price action and Elliot Wave (EW) count.






Sunday, February 12, 2012


$SPX: A little look to the "big picture". 90 years of price action.


The chart above, is a chart we posted some weeks ago and is from 1980 to date. There you can see our EW count and why we are, long term, bearish because, if we are right, now is developing Primary wave C (red) of cycle wave 2,down

Friday, March 2, 2012

$SPX: Our forecast for next months. Considering Primary B, is still in play.



Some days ago we posted that, because our 1,363.61 "clue line" wasn't respected and now the HS neckline (orange dotted line) is the one that is playing as resistance, primary wave B continues in play and now, maybe, minor wave 3 of intermediate wave c is ending. This is our forecast for next months until primary wave B could be in place.

We also posted, some days ago, that market is due for a pullback and we think it could be as an minor wave 4 and, also, we give a target of 1,285 for this wave.