Friday, March 30, 2012
Thursday, March 29, 2012
Our last days forecast is going fine. As you can see in this chart, 1,391 is the 23.61% retracement and some support is expect. If this support is break next stop could be 1,375.
Posted by About me at 10:08 AM
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
This is an update to our post from march 7. We can see that the 50% retracement has been reached,in the monthly chart and in the daily chart we can see a possibility that the retrace is finish,in case this is a wave 4 or a pullback is due for next months and then continue it's way down.
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
Posted by About me at 11:19 PM
If we are right in our forecast,below, and this is effectively a little wave 4,up, target could be in place or very near. If this is a wave 4,then next days we could see the continuation of the bigger wave 4 with a preliminary target of 1, 375.
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
Posted by About me at 4:39 PM
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
Since price broke our last "clue point" so our HS and neckline could be in play we have been trying to forecast this bear rally, because this Intermediate wave B is part of a bearish cycle wave 2,down and we are posting this forecast for our own record. Our principal points to watch are:
1.- The end of wave 3 of c of B at 1,442.
2.- The end of wave 4 of c of B at 1,282
3.- The end of wave 5 of c of B at 1,488
We stick to our overall forecast of a cycle wave 2 down. What is more difficult to try to forecast is timing.
Posted by About me at 9:19 PM
Monday, March 26, 2012
Friday, March 23, 2012
Thursday, March 22, 2012
We believe a lot about fibonacci participation in stock markets. In this case, we are drawing the fibonacci sequence as EMAs and find interesting clues. We are now at the 233 (EMA) support that has been an important support in the last 2 months.
Posted by About me at 7:37 AM
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Dow Jones Industrial
Dow Jones Transport
Dow theory: The two averages should be moving in the same direction. When the performance of the averages diverge, it is a warning that change is in the air (wikipedia).
In the first divergence,Dow Transport reaches a new high but Dow Industrial don't and some time before we saw a fall of both indices.
Now, with the second divergence, is Dow Industrial the one that reaches a new high and Dow Transport don't. We will expect a fall of both indices,soon?.
In the blue circles we are showing the coincides and in the red circles we are showing some differences.
Posted by About me at 11:39 PM
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
On sunday, we post a forecast if primary wave B of cycle 2 isn't in place. Yesterday we label the first wave 4,down as a much bigger wave,so we post as wave b of 4 was in game and 1,378 was it's target. With today's price action this possibility is negated and we are relabeling as the first wave 4 is in place and today is in game the first wave 5 up. The neckline we have been posting last weeks is working again,today.
Below is our sunday post:
Sunday, March 11, 2012
Posted by About me at 12:42 PM
Monday, March 12, 2012
We post,yesterday, a forecast, in case wave B is still in play. If this is right, this count is our next day forecast.
Posted by About me at 12:20 PM
Sunday, March 11, 2012
These 3.5 years, daily chart is for trying to forecast the probably movements of price, until wave B could be reached.
Posted by About me at 4:23 PM
Saturday, March 10, 2012
The monthly chart we show above shows our "mega" megaphone top of about 10 years of developing process.
A megaphone top or bottom are formed after huge rallys or big falls of price and markets enter on indecision and higher highs and lower lows are one after the other. In the charts,below, we present 3 examples of megaphones, tops or bottoms.
Example 1: megaphone top ( may-jul 2007)
Example 2: megaphone bottom ( nov 2008-mar 2009)
Example 3: megaphone bottom (may-jul 2010)
We are pasting,below, our post from september 29,2011.One of our first posts in this blog. In that post we alert about a megaphone bottom and,inclusive, we forecast a probable target,up, near where price is now.
Thursday, September 29, 2011
If two of this megaphone bottom pattern doesn't work, what can work.
Posted by About me at 1:17 PM
Friday, March 9, 2012
$ES_F: Target reached?. Wave 2 in place and wave 3 in play?. Nop, but price continue in target area.
Posted by About me at 9:37 AM
Thursday, March 8, 2012
As we posted yesterday, we forecast waves without alternatives. When forecast fails is when we focus on alternative count.
Elliot waves theory define impulsive and retrace waves. In this case we are forecasting? that the trend has changed because wave B is in place,so we have impulsive waves 1,3 & 5 down and retracement waves 2 & 4 up. If we are right and the impulsive trend is down then we will have as alternatives retracements, waves 2 and 4.
The maximum retrace that this wave 2 can have,if we are right, is 100%.
Posted by About me at 8:30 AM
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
A good friend of our blog is interested in the development of the price of Coffee,that is an commodity.
What we can see, in the monthly chart, is that a wave 3 or,alternative, wave 1 is in place and a wave 4 or,alternative,wave 2 is in play. If wave 4,it's maximum target could be to the 50% retracement (orange) and if wave 2,it's maximum target could be 100% retracement.Both waves are obligatory retracement waves and will have 3 sub waves, a,b & c.
In the daily chart we can see that,maybe, price is in an wave 3 down.
Posted by About me at 8:03 PM
Most trading blogs use alternatives counts, without taking risks, and after markets hours are closed. We prefer to use alternative counts after our count fail and we work in real time with the risk it means and, that's why we posted our target today at 10:35 am ET.
We are moving our, orange, wave 4 and working now with the green wave 4. Our orange maximum target was 1,352.98 and now is 1,355.78
Posted by About me at 6:20 PM
Posted by About me at 10:35 AM
Posted by About me at 9:35 AM
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
Posted by About me at 9:21 PM
As we have posted before,this could be a wave 3 of the wave a of the wave 4 that we have target in about 1,285.00
Posted by About me at 10:20 AM
Yesterday we post the alternative wave 4 wasn't reached yet, but it was with only a 38.2% of retracement which could mean that wave 3 is strong down.
Thursday, March 1, 2012
Posted by About me at 10:10 AM
Monday, March 5, 2012
Some days ago we posted about waves 4 and 5 of wave B to come in next days,weeks?. For those that not read our blog, we have relabel our count because, first we put in place wave B with 04.29.2011 high at 1,363.61 and that's why we stick to our first "clue line" at that level, but price went a bit more high 03.01.2012 , up to 1,374.09 (daily EOD) and, that is very near to our 78.6% retracement (1,373.94) from 2007 high to 2009 low, so we will stick now to our new "clue line" in 1,373.94. This not means that wave 5 ( wave B) has to go, necessarily, up to that point,it means that can't pass that point.
Below, we are reposting our "big picture" of 90 years of price action and Elliot Wave (EW) count.
Sunday, February 12, 2012
Friday, March 2, 2012
Some days ago we posted that, because our 1,363.61 "clue line" wasn't respected and now the HS neckline (orange dotted line) is the one that is playing as resistance, primary wave B continues in play and now, maybe, minor wave 3 of intermediate wave c is ending. This is our forecast for next months until primary wave B could be in place.
We also posted, some days ago, that market is due for a pullback and we think it could be as an minor wave 4 and, also, we give a target of 1,285 for this wave.
Posted by About me at 11:24 AM