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Monday, January 23, 2012

$SPX EW count Comparison between our count from 10.30.2011 and Artur Hill from Stockcharts latest EW count.



As you can read in this large post,our count from 10.30.2011 is been validated by today's post from stockchart market message. 

We have not been posting last days because our hollydays vacation and also because this days (we hope last bullish days) are very tricky and we can bored our readers with endless counts.




Sunday, October 30, 2011

$SPX EW count. 20 years/monthly,5 years/weekly, 1 year/daily,4 months/60 min and 1 month/15 min.

 This weekend,our plan was: first: revise again the EW count on monthly,weekly,daily,60 min and 15 min charts and also standardize the different period of EW such as cycle, primary, intermediate,etc but, only for charts that we can work with plenty of time. Charts in real time will continue as usual, with the first color we have at hand because we have to work quikly.Second: try to find clues for tomorrow monday and next days.
As you can see, my long term count is pretty different from others technical analysis blogs but, in the chart above you can see why and we will appreciate if one of our readers have something to tell us about this.
What we have been thinking, some time ago, is that wave 2 (cycle) could reach,as a minimum the same value as wave A (primary) and as a maximum it can reach near 100 but, we really doubt about this possibility and think that the minimum retrace have the odds on their side, and the world and USA economy will improve soon.
We have fix our count, changing the first intermediates waves from "a" and "b" to 1 and 2 because,now that we have standardize our count, we have the big picture more clear.This doesn't mean that our counts till now had been wrong because, in the short term there are no major differences but, in the long term it could be important differences.
 In the weekly chart,we have try to find some clues for monday and next days and,maybe, we have find an important resistance at the wave 1(intermediate) of wave A(primary). As you can see is,maybe,than friday EOD close price could regret from this ressitance. We have been,also, calling a top with our $NYAD "top pattern", on thursday morning and also, we call to a bullish end for friday EOD and also, we have call for a gap down on friday,but really it can take more time. If we have a gap down,next days, we will see the same developing, as AAPL next day from earnings, where an "island top" was developed and that is considered an important reversal pattern.
We have try to give the maximum of information, in the weekly chart, and we expect it will be easily understand and if not, no doubt about asking directly in the blog or by Stocktwits or twitter.
 In the 60 min chart,above, we can observe a "head and shoulder" pattern, same as that developed at last months of year 2007, and wave 2 (intermediate) could be,perfectly, the pullback.This is another clue that,maybe, confirm our hypothesis of a big wave 3 down,soon.Our first target was 1,000 if wave 1 wasn't in place and the same target could be if we have an intermediate wave b instead of 2. Now,with the possibility of an intermediate wave 2,soon to get in place,the fall could be ,as we have said before, to 670 or less. This is only an hypothesis and could easily be wrong.As always,in this blog we try,only to give some information, so anyone can used,if they consider it worth, for his own analysis and take of desicions.
 In both charts,above and below,we have try to make the best count we can of wave 2 (intermediate) and IF we are right, this wave could finish soon or we have seen the top, on thursday.


ARTHUR HILL EW COUNT, FROM TODAY MARKET MESSAGE:




SPX ELLIOTT COUNT SUGGEST CURRENT ADVANCE IS CORRECTIVE... Link for today’s video. It is time once again to open Pandora’s box with some Elliott Wave analysis. First, note that there are only three rules for Elliott Wave Theory. 

Rule 1: Wave-2 cannot retrace more than 100% of Wave-1. 
Rule 2: Wave-3 can never be the shortest of the three impulse waves. 
Rule 3: Wave-4 can never overlap Wave-1. 

Everything else is just a guideline open to interpretation. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 as a 5-day EMA to smooth out fluctuations. Looking at the entire bull run since March 2009, it appears that the S&P 500 is currently in Wave-II of a bigger five wave decline or Wave-A of a bigger ABC correction. Both scenarios are bearish. First, let’s step back and look at the first five-wave sequence. Wave-I extends from the March 2009 low to the June 2009 high and Wave-II extends to the July 2009 low. Waves III and V form clear five wave sequences, which means they are impulsive or part of the bigger uptrend. Things changed when the index forged a five-wave sequence during the decline from early May to early October. Five wave sequences can only be part of a bigger decline, which implies this decline was Wave-A of a bigger ABC zigzag correction or Wave-1 of a bigger five-wave decline. Either way, the implications are rather bearish and project a move below the October low in the coming months. 


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